Sunday, August 14, 2011

Gado Gado Senin, 15 Agustus 2011


Hari Ini IHSG menguji MA50 Pada Level 3931

Salam winner,
IHSG ditutup pada level 3890.526, naik 21.161 points (+0.55%), dengan total value transaksi sebesar 5.3 trilyun dimana asing net sell sebesar 336.5 milyard.

Dow : 11,269.02 +125.71 +1.13%
Nasdaq : 2,507.98 +15.30 +0.61%
Nikel : 21465 21665 -35
Timah : 24290 24490 +785
CPO : RM3015 ▲22 ▲0.74% US $1004
OIL : 85.30

Berikut Tabel Market Detailnya
Tip trading buat hari Senin, tanggal 15 Agustus 2011 :
1. Jumat kemarin IHSG hanya naik 0.55% setelah nampak dow fut yang merah tebal pada siang harinya, sedangkan Dow Fut semakin sore semakin menurun, ternyata Jumat kemarin Dow close naik sebesar 1.1%.
2. Bagaimana dengan IHSG? Arah arket masih sensitive dan volatile banget, saat ini psikologis trading jauh lebih berperan, sehingga rawan terhadp profit taking ataupun Cut loss.
3. Kalau kita berpedoman kepada Tehnikal analisys, Stochastic dan MACD IHSG makin membaik, serta belum ada tanda-tanda asing agresif berjualan, kecuali terhadap beberapa saham tertentu, seperti ASII, BMRI dlsb.
4. ASII masih tetap sebagai indicator IHSG, sehingga kemarin ASII ditekan maka IHSG tidak begitu kuat untuk mengadakan rally, namun sebagai balancing maka saham GGRM diangkat.
5. Saham yang cenderung diangkat saat ini adalah saham-saham kecil, karena dibutuhkan sedikit modal, sehingga Bandar juga cenderung cari aman dulu, masih ingatkah dulu IHSG bisa bertahan di level 3800-4000 hanya dengan saham-saham kecil sebelum akhirnya Blue chips diangkat sampai level 4200 dan dibanting lagi hingga 3650.
6. Buat para trader harian, maka posisi demikian, pilihlah saham-saham yang bermain dengan fransi : Rp. 1,-, Rp. 5,-, Rp 10,-, sehingga dengan naik 1 point aja, maka bisa lagnsung mendapatkan keuntungan, dan bila akan Cut Loss juga cukup 1 points, berbeda dengan saham-saham sekelas ASII, dimana naik 200-250 juga masih belum untung bila diperhitungkan dengan fee sekuritas.
7. Buat pemain long term sebaiknya kita lihat dulu arah trendnya, apakah masih down trend ataukah sudah up trend.
8. Sedangkan buat pemain bottom fishing, hati-hati bila kenaikan sudah mencapai fibo 50%, karena kemungkinanya bisa turun, ataukah melanjutkan kenaikannya lagi, dibutuhkan waktu 1-2 hari kemudian.
9. Namun bila Fibo 50% banyak saham-saham yang ditembus, maka akan banyak saham yang akan ditutup gap diatasnya. Semoga...

Happy trading and good luck.


IHSG :
Close tepat pada fibo 50%.
Stochastic masih up trend meninggalkan area jenuh jual.
MACD : Penurunan melambat dan histogram menaik.
Masih berpotensi menuju fibo 38.2% pada level 3962,
Bila tembus 3962 maka berpeluang menuju level 4005.
tugas IHSG saat ini harus tembus MA50 pada level 3931.
S : 3876...3848, R : 3931... 3962.



MAPI :
Rumor berdekar akan privat replacement di harga 4900.
MA50 sesuai dengan garis support aup trend.
Open gap gup, stochastic golden cross.
MACD nampak tanda reversal.
Close berhasil diatas MA20, MA5, MA50.
S : 4375... 4250, R : 4550... 4600.

BDMN :
Ada gap di level 5400-5500.
Kemarin kenaikan cukup tinggi sekitar 4.9%
MA20 pada level 5450.
Saham ini akan right isue denga harga penawaran 4100-4900.
S : 5250... 5200, R : 5500... 5600


Dalam keadaan HIGH RISK seperti sekarang seperti ditunjukan
oleh inikator RESIKO yaitu VIX yg masih tinggi maka KEBOHONGAN
bisa terjadi: Misalnya CEO disuruh beli dan Major share
holder jualan dalam jumlah yg lebih besar...

Note:
- VIX saat ini 36
- Beberapa hari yg lalu 47,
- Selama angka VIX masih tinggi maka pasar masih menganggap
index SP500 masih VOLATILE dan RESIKOnya masih tinggi.
Kalo angka VIX sudah dekat 15 artinya pasar sudah ADEM ...

(MYOR IJ / MYOR.JK, OUTPERFORM - Upgraded, Rp14,700 - Tgt. Rp17,400, Food & Beverages)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Upgrade to Outperform with an unchanged target price. On the back of strong Jul sales and margin expansion from lower operating expense, we upgrade our FY11-13 core earnings forecasts by 0.3-2.2%. Although our gross margin expectation for 2H11 is cut slightly from 21% to 20% due to high commodity prices, lower selling expense raises our EBIT margin estimate

MAPI is a choice target 4700-4750

RUMORS: PWON ON PRIVATE PLACEMENT ATY IDR1,260/SHARE TO SINGAPORE KEPPEL LAND; disclaimer ON

Emerging Markets to Beat Developed Markets in 2H: Morgan Stanley
2011-08-15 03:18:27.142 GMT


By Jan Dahinten
Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Raises equities weighting by 2
percentage points to 8% over benchmark in multi-asset EM model
portfolio to largest since April 2009, Morgan Stanley strategist
Jonathan Garner says in note to investors.
* Key overweight markets are Brazil, China, Korea, Malaysia,
Russia
* Underweight countries: Mexico, Taiwan, India, Thailand,
Colombia, Chile, Hungary, Peru
* Overweight energy, materials, financials; underweight
consumer staples, health care, utilities
* Cuts MSCI EM index target to 1,200 vs 1,305, suggesting 20%
upside from today; index is down 13.3% ytd
* Cuts MSCI A-P ex Japan index end-2011 target to 510 vs

Cuts MSCI A-P ex Japan index end-2011 target to 510 vs 550,
suggesting 1% upside from today; index is down 11% ytd
* Sets end-2012 scenario-weighted targets of 1,355 for MSCI EM
and 575 for MSCI A-P ex Japan
* Conviction that EM will outperform DM in 2H increased by
recent events, incl. EU debt crisis, and sluggish U.S.
growth: Morgan Stanley
* EM outperformed in recent sell-off vs collapse in 2008

KZ: Lippo Karawaci (LPCK IJ) held an analyst briefing last Friday by Sarina Lesmina

Our NAV/sh for LPCK is Rp4,200/sh (latest closing price is Rp1,550). Company's NAV estimate is ~Rp9,000/sh. We use DCF wtih 11% ave price. Company's estimate implies an ave. and selling price of Rp1.5m psm for 735ha land bank and based on 60% saleable.

WATCH BIPI; ON COAL MINE ACQUISITION (DISCLAIMER)

kata Kheng GHOng
4 hall yang harus diperhatikan saat pilih saham:
1) manajemen manajemen manajemen
2) ROE
3) growth
4) valuasi
contoh MBAI ROE 58%

CMNP is a choice

LPCK NOW TRADES AT 6.4X 2011 EARNINGS, FAR BELOW PROPERTY INDUSTRIAL AVERGAE P/E RATIO OF 14X; AT THAT AVERAGE LPCK SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRADED AT IDR4,200. (EPS: IDR298)

KIJA BKSL formasi chart worth..good for trading....eropa bagus, buat beso...yang belum ada

*DJ Indonesia Finance Minister: To Issue Regulation On Tax Holiday Today
Last message received on 8/15 at 1:42 PM

REMINDER BNBR::: BAPEPAM THURSDAY RECEIVED BNBR'S LETTER OF REQUEST TO CONDUCT QUASI REORGANIZATION WHICH INCLUDES ASSETS REVALUING.
AFTER QUASI REORGANIZATION, BNBR FINANCIAL PEFORMANCE WILL BE POSITIVE AS IT WILL BE ALLOWED TO ERASE DEBTS BUT REDUCED ITS ASSETS AFTER QUASI, BNBR WILL BE ABLE TO GIVE DIVIDEND

Reminder: BNBR kabarnya 18/19 Agustus ini akan me release lap keuangan (katanya bakalan kinclong), disclaimer ON

buy asii 68400 target 72200...dc on

auto target masuk 4025

PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk (AISA) has agreed to acquire production facility and brand of Taro Snack from PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR) at the consideration price of more than Rp200 billion. Tiga Pilar will acquire production facilities located in Gunung Putri, Bogor, and Medan, North Sumatra.
Corporate Secretary Yulianni Liyuwardi at Tiga Pilar said Unilever is considering that Taro Snack is not a strategic product. "This is different from us that produces snack," she said as quoted by Investor Daily today.
According to her, Taro Snack will be accretive acquisition for Tiga Pilar as the brand will scout middle to up class consumers, while Tiga Pilar's products are maintain its middle to low class consumers.

enak tuh ASII dah 69700...

Fitch Ratings has affirmed PT Perusahaan Gas Negara's (PGN) long-term foreign-and local-currency issuer default ratings (IDRs) at BB+ and simultaneously revised the outlooks to Positive from Stable.
PGN's national long-term rating has also been upgraded to AAA(idn) from AA+(idn). The outlook is stable.
These rating actions follow a review of PGN's operating and financial profiles, including the impact from a potential significant increase to its gas purchase costs.
"PGN's ratings reflect its dominant position in Indonesia's gas distribution sector and positive domestic demand dynamics. The company has maintained a very strong financial profile for its ratings, with strong free cash generation, low financial leverage and solid liquidity," said Shahim Zubair,

asii likely 72000 would be reached tommorow...cheers

IMAS promising to BO....hold if you have...test along turnmoil past few days has made this stock more sugar sugar

buy hrum 8650..target 9200..dc on

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